Here’s the problem with the battery powered devices being pushed on us as the mandatory replacement for vehicles:
See that business about mandatory.
Even if the mandates – which chiefly come in the form of regulations, a sneaky way to mandate something evasively – were to be repealed tomorrow, the car industry has already bought in.
Literally.
It is not merely a matter of feigning a kind of vapid belief in the merit of the Latest Thing. The car industry is an industry. It makes things, in other words. Complex things that require an enormous investment in physical things, such as tooling and assembly lines to make the things. As well as the things themselves. One does not simply draw a vehicle – or a battery-powered device – on a napkin, though that may the starting point insofar as how the end result might look. But to transform that drawing into a finished vehicle that moves – and that complies, with all the myriad regulations – takes years of careful planning and millions of dollars put toward making it happen.
It generally takes four years to develop a new vehicle. Thus, the vehicles that will be available four years from now are just now in the process of being fleshed out. And almost all of these are battery-powered devices, because the car industry has bought into the narrative – and the attending need to manufacture only that which they’ll be allowed to sell.
That’s not unreasonable – assuming people are willing (and able) to buy.
But absent a breakthrough of some kind – the kind we’ve been told is just around the corner for the past several decades – this is going to be a problem for the industry because many people who want a vehicle have no interest in buying a battery powered device and won’t buy one, unless they are forced to buy one. And force only works when it’s possible to force people. How will it be possible to force people to spend $50k – the current average sales price of a battery powered device – if they do not have it and so cannot spend it?
It is possible, of course, that the industry is counting on the government to buy these devices and then (effectively) rent them to the people forced to use them, by eliminating alternatives to them. But that does not eliminate the need to pay for it all – and it’s very clear that while a limitless supply of money can be conjured into existence by the “federal” reserve, that money increasingly has the purchasing power of Monopoly money. The government can offer to subsidize battery-powered devices for all. But government cannot make them cost less.
The distinction is important.
Ford is losing billions on battery-powered devices yet hasn’t stopped devoting resources to making more of them. The same for the rest of them, with a handful of sticks-in-the-mud such as Mazda, which tepidly feigns vapid agreement with the “need” to “electrify” . . . at some point down the road.
In the meanwhile, though, the major players in the industry have already largely ceased fleshing out new designs that aren’t battery powered devices. Volkswagen, for instance, announced earlier this year that it would henceforth not be developing any new engines – in favor of electric motors. In other words, what they have available now is all that will be available going forward.
And that not for long.
Here’s why:
An engine (or family of engines) that is compliant with the regulations for this model year is unlikely to be compliant with the next slew of regulations emanating from the government for subsequent model years. Keep in mind that regulations are always temporary; they change regularly. It is why an engine made in say 2018 that met (or even exceeded) all of the regulatory requirements that were in force when it was manufactured is likely no longer compliant today. This does not mean the vehicle it’s powering cannot (legally) be driven. But it does mean that vehicle – with that engine – would probably be illegal to sell today, as a new vehicle.
Not because it is “dirty” – the word used to anathematize engines that are not compliant with the latest regulations – but simply because it does not quite meet whatever the requirements of the latest regulations happen to be.
A good (because actual) example of this are the pending regulations that will require new vehicles to average nearly 50 miles-per-gallon less than three years from now.
This de facto requires “electrifying” everything, because nothing that isn’t equipped with a diesel engine (already out-regulated) or that is very light (also out-regulated) or a hybrid and so partially “electrified” can average more than 50 miles per gallon.
Thus, there is little incentive for the industry to invest in new engines – and a massive (artificial) inducement for them to “invest” in battery powered devices. And so they have, most of them.
Which means it is already too late for many of them.
When it becomes clear there is no compensatory market for all of this “investment,” the brands that have bought-in to “electrification” will probably go the way of brands like Edsel, which Ford convinced itself would sell like tamales in El Paso, provided it could convince people to buy them.
That didn’t work out so well for Edsel. But Ford survived – because the whole company wasn’t committed to selling nothing but Edsels.
We’ll see how it works out for Ford – and the rest who are trying to sell electrified Edsels – today.
And most of all, tomorrow.
. . .
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If the state governments truly believe in the horror that is “climate change” they will outlaw ALL gasoline powered vehicles/machinery by 2030. NO EXCEPTIONS.
The ‘Ho (Hochul governor of NY) should stop pussy footing around, grow some balls and be the first state governor to outlaw ALL ICE vehicles and gasoline powered machines.
– The ‘Ho should mandate nor more registrations of ICE vehicles starting in 2030.
– ALL gas stations in NY state to be shut down by 2030.
– Gasoline will not be permitted to be sold in New York state.
– All gas powered machinery (such as lawn mowers, leaf blowers, tractors, generators) will be banned for sale in NY, anyone found using a gas powered machine will be fined.
Remove the access to gas and people will be forced to go electric or move to another state that will have gas available. I am waiting for either Newsome or the “Ho to be the first state governor to “put their money where their mouth is.”
Think it will ever happen?
If it comes down to whether I want a car or a government, I’ll take the car every time.
We got stupider since 1977…..
1977 Fiat 128 Coupé EV
Sears XDH-1 is an experimental electric car built for Sears, Roebuck and Company by their DieHard battery supplier Johnson Controls (Globe Union) in 1977 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of its DieHard brand of car batteries.
The car was a Fiat 128 Coupé equipped with 20 DieHard (12-inch deep cycle marine) batteries, and an electric motor. The car has a front-wheel drive and was powered by a World War II-vintage 27-horsepower electric aircraft starter motor.
Some 12 volt lead acid batteries now weigh 29 lb X 20 batteries = 580 lb…that is better then 1000 to 2000 lb lithium firebomb batteries….
these batteries are also cheaper to recharge then 1000 lb 90 kwh lithium firebomb batteries….20 X 12 volt batteries = 12 kwh….a 90 kwh battery might take 7.5 times the energy to recharge…then a 12 kwh…. 20 X 12 volt battery setup…..and you don’t have to rewire your house….
You can buy reconditioned 12 volt batteries for $60 X 20 = $1200….that is far, far, cheaper then a $22,000 plus lithium firebomb battery replacement cost….
1977 Fiat 128 EV curb weight 1800 lb….subtract 300 lb for the ice engine…add 580 lb for the batteries…should be roughly 2100 lb…that is far better then the new $50,000 plus 4000 lb to 5000 lb EV’s being sold now…..2100 lb….so less tire wear and less road damage….and far less damage if it runs into your vehicle….
The batteries are located in the trunk and former back seat area. The car has a top speed of approximately 70 miles per hour and has a range of 60–90 miles (at 50 MPH) per charge. The electric car is on display at the International Motorsports Hall of Fame and Museum in Talladega, Alabama.
The car has a top speed of approximately 70 miles per hour and has a range of 60–90 miles (at 50 MPH) per charge. ….this is adequate for the only thing EV’s are good for…short commutes in the city….
1971 FIAT 128 2 Door Sedan Original MSRP $1,831….$13,915 in 2023 dollars
If the 1977 Fiat 128 EV was around $2400 …in 2023 dollars…$18,239….that is still far cheaper then these new $50,000 EV’s being sold now….
This means the current lithium firebomb EV’s being sold now are 100% heavier then they should be….cost 2.5 X more then they should cost….are many times more dangerous….because of lithium firebomb batteries and they are far too heavy/overweight….making them far more dangerous for anything else sharing the road….
Lead acid batteries are green because 100% are recycled…firebomb lithium batteries are an ecological catastrophe…5% are recycled…there is a rumored $4000 recycling fee….will they be thrown down old mineshafts like nuclear waste?…lol…
https://www.reddit.com/r/WeirdWheels/comments/vgdrx0/1977_sears_xdh1_ev_prototype/
I think most people are starting to get it. My go-to pitch on why EVs are inferior to ICE cars is simple: Costs twice as much to go half as far. It gets to the heart of the matter and doesn’t allow any equivocation.
I think we’re nearing a national collapse/calamity since our central government is obviously run by evil morons who hate the very people they rule. Imagine that!
The government will try to outlaw ICE cars, even ones in your garage, put confiscatory taxes on gasoline and probably impose some sort of a social credit system with money so if you don’t play ball, you starve.
The automakers who are going full-on retard with EVs are headed for bankruptcy. There isn’t that large a market for $50k vehicles, unless it is a work truck you’ll use for the next 500k miles.
Even work trucks are throw away now. No way they go 500K unless you spend the purchase price on repairs.
Tier4 has killed diesel’s longstanding appeal. Lost a sale last week on a 250hp diesel piece of equipment.
Customer said “no way I want tier4, they don’t work, I will buy used or make one myself”
Was watching some English speaking man in Moscow at a Lada dealer on jewtube the other day every car he stuck his camera had a 5 sp manual…..no Ipad in the dash…hell most had no radio. I liked the Niva 4×4 no got dam air bags NO electric transfer case locking center diff (i think)…..best of all brand new 13 thousand USAA fed funny money….Who has more choice? Us or the Russians……I wasn’t so old I would leave this place….I am too dam old to start over. ps.Would bet my life that none of those Ladas had ASS……
I’ve often wondered why auto manufacturers have bought into EVs the way they have and not fought the government more. I think a big part of it is that they want a piece of the inflated Tesla stock price. They also are lured by lower labor costs (highlighted by the current UAW strike). They believe it’s in their self interest. After the bailouts of 2008, they wouldn’t dare fight Uncle. They have a rude awakening coming when nobody buys their EV appliances and will likely go bankrupt (again).
And I don’t think massive bailouts will fly, politically, this time around.
‘Ford survived – because the whole company wasn’t committed to selling nothing but Edsels.’ — eric
Notoriously, Big Gov does not do pilot programs. Like a bipolar schizophrenic, Clowngress lurches into overnight policy U-turns, heedlessly launching wars and pandemic aid and EeeVee revolutions with no clue what the consequences may be.
Absent the harsh, sweeping regulations on vehicles issued by the EPA, EeeVees would be largely a luxury toy for wealthy urban dwellers: zero to supermarket in five seconds.
A complete change of propulsion technology, when the replacement tech lacks any edge over the existing one other than invisible regulatory compliance, is not sustainable.
Reckless backing of the Ukie and the Izzie wars isn’t enough for Clowngress. No, they’ve opened a third domestic front, the War on Motorists. But their proxy army, auto makers, face bitter defeat.
Why do business with Big Gov collaborators? We are the Resistance, keeping our vintage vehicles going like the Cubans do, and waiting for our elderly dictator to age out and flake off.
The EV juggernaut can’t be stopped without some major black swan event. I’m surrounded by upper middle class people where I live in the SF Bay Area, and they are entirely convinced of the EV propaganda stating that EV’s are cleaner, more practical, cheaper in the long run, safer, etc. The “cheaper in the long run” argument really confounds me because these same people never drive the same car for more than three or four years, so they’re never keeping them long enough to realize these net savings, which start to show up somewhere around 150k miles driven. These people that I describe are the majority, and they’ve never been poor, so they haven’t the slightest idea what it means not to afford transportation.
When you have such fanatical support for something, the politicians won’t act against it. Whoever perpetrated this brain washing campaign was an evil genius.
You are describing “useful idiots”. They will be the big losers.
I was on the NJ turnpike yesterday (300mile round trip on gas towing w/room to spare).
Those ‘service centers’ that were all ripped up and closed for a long time now have about 12, yes about 12, e-chargers now. I was expecting 30-50 of them, and even that won’t be enough.
There were no cars charging the few that I saw.
It is a thoroughfare road between the NE and DC and south, very busy at all times, and you see all kind of plates from Mass to Florida.
If EV’s even become 5-10% of cars soon, the line for the e-chargers will be out on the highway.
I’ve seen 3-4 hour lines for chargers already in Texas, but that was the first weekend of Spring Break this year, in a place called Royce West, a critical recharge point for any hipster driving from Brownsville/Corpus Christi to Austin seeking to avoid range anxiety.
Strangely, I did not see a repeat on the weekends before or after the 4th of July. I guess that isn’t a big holiday among the EV set.
In the past 10 days I drove the NY Thruway and PA Turnpike (over 800+ miles). I saw two EVs driving on the Thruway and Turnpike, both were Teslas. One Tesla was going 40 MPH on the PA Turnpike near Pittsburgh. I have no idea why it was driving so slowly, 40mph in a 70mph zone. The ICE cars were passing it left and right. I thought EVs were supposed to be faster than ICE vehicles?
Speaking of services on toll roads. The NYS Thruway is ripping up all the “old” service stations and replacing them with new service stations, just ’cause. Most of the service areas are closed (except for fuel, go figure). Are they putting in chargers? Probably, but not enough if everyone is forced to go electric.
If EVs are the future, the future is a long way off…
Chris,
What are you talking about? I was on the NJ Turnpike recently myself (between Exit 10 and Exit 6), and the service centers are still there. I know, because I stopped in at one; you can get gas, food, etc. there still.
Don’t worry Eric – there is a battery breakthrough in the works in 3,2,1.
If politicians are good at one thing – it’s forcing technology on the market that’s not quite ready for prime time.
1/2 – 1.5 ton battery packs are “sustainable” you see:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/16/22937491/hummer-ev-electric-truck-battery-weight-truck-bloat
Even with battery mass just shy of 1 full ton – the F150 lightning still leaves a lot to be desired from a range standpoint.
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/40676/electric-ford-f-150-lightnings-battery-weighs-over-1800-pounds-by-itself
And let’s not look at the elephant in the room: 60 day+ auto loan delinquencies have surpassed their “great recession” levels. Let’s not forget that the great recession took “cash for clunkers” to keep the shortsighted OEMs who are addicted to new mandates solvent.
https://press.spglobal.com/2023-06-20-Special-report-from-S-P-Global-Mobility-Auto-finance-delinquencies-rise-past-Great-Recession-peak,-but
I’m sure making cars which cost even more to produce will help a bunch with this financing issue. You’ll own nothing and be happy.
Any takers that there will be “Cash for clunkers 2” and the only “Acceptable” “non-clunker” cars covered by this new manna from heaven will be BEVs?
Because 14 million cars x 1,250 lbs per battery pack is only 17.5 billion pounds of new battery packs that must be produced every year to meet current annual sales volume.
“Sustainable”
Who knows, maybe when the EV thing implodes, the FRN implodes, the west implodes, etc. we’ll find ourselves back in the late 19th or early 20th century where small local / regional foundries produced the necessities and niceties of life.
The old hit ‘n’ miss engines I tinker with were largely regional e.g. built in Ohio for Ohioans, built in Kansas for Kansans, etc. Of course some could be ordered nationally out of a Sears catalog but in general it was local / regional.
Perhaps cars could be made that way again, as well. I won’t live to see it but a boy can dream.
Sears is gone. It is easy to blame the big online shopping push, but Sears was history when the courts forced them to change their credit terms in the mid 90s.
Hi Roscoe,
I was a Sears regular; liked their tools and their lawn-related stuff. Not the absolute best stuff, but good enough at a not-ridiculous price. It was nice being able to exchange a damaged tool – or just buy one that wasn’t dropped by the forge in Chyna….
Which stopped about 1996, not long after “NAFTA” was passed at the behest of “Kodos” (Bill “Clin-Ton”) and abetted by “Kang” (Bob Dole, whose name even Homer Simpson could recall) and especially “Newt” Gingrich. That was about when the “Chinesium” started infecting our land.
Best Sears story — Tonya Harding worked in the hardware section of the store where we lived in WA State for four years, prior to the release of “I, Tonya” resurrecting her celebrity. I didn’t make the connection at the time, but I think I bought several items with her help, notably a garage door opener.
My brush with fame.
I’ve owned three Sears mowers over the years. I’m not sure where I will buy an adequate replacement for my 7.25 HP gas engine model when the self propelled feature (always what dies first) goes bad.
This is my 1st year using both Toro & Honda pushmowers.
I like them both quite a bit.
The Toro has more agility, I guess you could say. The Honda has a bigger back door so it never clogs when mowing the tall thick stuff.
Bought the Toro at a small town independent mower shop where the repair guys actually know their stuff.
Got the Honda, used, at an auction. I’m not going that route again.
Did you buy any hammers from her?
That’s a question Nancy Kerrigan wants to know!
Give Ms Harding this: when ice skating competitively, that gal had one FINE ass!
I got tired of being pestered to sign up for their credit card and quit going. Our local sears has been closed for 15-ish years.
The USA made Craftsman tools were my go-to when I couldn’t justify paying Snap-on prices.
Recently, I needed metric sockets for the first time. I had a heck of a time finding reasonably priced made in USA ones. I think I got the last set of Blackhawk sockets.
Roscoe: Tell me more about why Sears was history when the courts forced them to change their credit terms in the mid 90s. I don’t know that story.
Prior to the court decision in the 90s, Sears cards carried a special provision which obligated the borrower to make payments or face repossession of the merchandise and other financial penalties, even if the card holder was under protection of Bankruptcy.
While this meant that the Sears bill always took priority, even in Bankruptcy, the customer could get a car repair, replace or fix an appliance, buy clothing, and even eat (bulk frozen meat) on the card as long as they made the payments on time. This is what built Sears into what it was circa the late 70s, prior to the beginning of the decline as shopping habits changed.
Still, nothing changed Sears like the court decision about their card.
Sears was serious about it too. I dated a girl in college whose mother went into Bankruptcy in the late 80s, and the moment she stopped paying on the recarpeting in her house, the repossession team rolled in and took the carpet and padding, everything down to and including as many of the tack strips as they could pull.
Hi Roscoe,
I didn’t know that about Sears; thanks for telling us about it. I have no issue with it, either. If someone welshes on a debt they freely assumed, then they should expect to have what they didn’t pay for taken from them.
Where Sears erred and got caught in the 90s was in failing to properly file the “reaffirmations” negotiated with customers regarding repayment of outstanding debts. The signed agreements, negotiated with customers who filed for Bankruptcy, needed to be submitted to the courts even if payment happened outside of the Chapter 11 process, and Sears failed to do so on a very large scale.
Good for Sears! Maybe if repossession was part of not paying one’s bills then people would be a little wiser on how much they were willing to go into debt.
A funny story, okay, funny to me. I had an employer that owned a construction business. A restaurant had ordered two large HVAC units to be installed that were to be paid COD (this was back in the mid 1990s). Fifty percent due when the units were set the other 50% due when they were installed. My boss had set the units and the customer refused to pay the first half. There was nothing wrong with the units. The guy just wanted something for nothing. The owner (my boss) was not going to install them if the guy wouldn’t pay the first half. What was the likelihood of being paid for the second half? Zero. My boss had called the office and told me to find a crane for 4 AM the next morning. The crane showed up and removed both units from the rooftop and they were loaded back on the flatbed. When the restaurant owner came in at 7 AM he was pissed to high heaven. He called my boss screaming that they were “his units”. My boss said you refused to pay for them so they were repossessed. The restaurant owner said he was calling the cops, my boss said “go ahead, what are they going to do.” The restaurant owner never contacted the police and went out of business about six months later. I think the restaurant owner was more fearful of getting his knees capped walking out of the building one night then finding out if they were really “his units.”
Interesting. I had always thought the reason Sears is no more is due to it being bought by K-Mart several years ago. K-Mart was already dying then and it was like a drowning person pulling their would-be rescuer (Sears) under….
Sears had many, many problems, but the credit card terms made them unique. I had the old school card until the store sold their credit unit to … Citibank?
Even in 2000, when we bought our first house, Sears was the go to place for appliances and tools.
The Kmart merger brought in Eddie Lampert, former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin crony, who was heralded as the second coming of Capo Gecko, who would use the real estate assets to engineer the next Berkshire Hathaway … until they didn’t.
Sears and Kmart had *great* real estate assets which the Capo could have utilized well if he had the mind to take on the challenge of rebuilding the brands instead of buying the railroad.
The “game” in the Corporate Boardrooms became, “Let’s see what we can do to ARTIFICIALLY inflate the value of the stock, take our options, SELL OUT, then RUN.” Whatever made the balance sheet look good to the duped. Names like Carl Ichan, Ivan Boesky, and Michael Miliken. BTW, GUESS what “Tribe” they hail from…
Mistake #1 was shutting down their catalog at the start of the world wide web.
Mistake #2 was a CEO they chose. Sears was intentionally destroyed for the self interest of its CEO.
Sears practically invented Amazon business model, but it ony took one hedge fun owner Eddie Lampert to destroy it in short order, he only wanted the real estate anyway thinking that mall space was actually worth something. Oh yeah that and stock buy-backs the usual business killer but at least the executives walked away with 8 figure bonus checks.
Bureaucrats are ignorant shitheads that don’t understand the limits of physics, nor do they care. All they care about is job-security for their worthless, useless fat asses. And they will use robbery-by-mandate, or gunpoint if sheeple are stupid enough to dis-arm themselves.
Always ratchets along, no accountability no leadership to reverse the nonsense. Here in WA it’s like any opposition has given up. There are pockets of local republican representation but powerless against the democrats that have ruled here for 40 plus years.
EV only for new car sales is due here in 2030 not a peep of opposition in any “mainstream” news service. Carbon “tax” has driven fuel costs sky high, the local Pilot truck plaza $6.05 for diesel the other day. Again, silence in the media. Silence from the business community, everyone given up?
How Washington state continues to have no income tax, after a leftist takeover, is beyond me.
Surely a modest 5 percent income tax could provide a Guaranteed Basic Income and EeeVees for all. /sarc
There were several WA Supreme Court rulings that basically outlawed an actual income tax per state constitution interpretation. Efforts to mod the constitution have failed.
They get their pound of flesh many other ways. Real estate transaction tax is close to 2% if I remember. On gross sales $$$ NOT profit. Lose money on a house sale still pay the tax. Business and occupation tax similar, lose money that quarter still pay tax on gross receipts, good times. The labor and industry workers comp fees are outrageous also. Booze tax out of sight too!
What a great time to be alive!
Graffiti on a walk bridge spanning Pacific Coast Highway 101 in Seattle: Wage slavery, it happened to you!
First they came for the Palestinians, but I wasn’t a Palestinian, so I didn’t speak up.
Then they came for the Jews, I am not a Jew, however, it might be time to speak up.
Who in the hell do those Jews think they are? God? No way on God’s green earth are they any kind of God! So to hell with them. Muslims, Jews, Christians, Atheists, Deists, doesn’t matter, every single one of you will burn in HELL, God damns you to the lowest rung there, can’t get any hotter than that.
As the Croat said about the Serb, “Jesus said to love your neighbor, I do, I love to kill him.”
Or was it what the Serb said about the Croat?
The Jews are slaves to their doctrinaire, the ideology is not fail proof.
All too evident with the entelechy that you see happening.
These are dark times indeed.
Beer helps more than hinders.
It really does make you wonder what on earth is wrong with not only car manufacturers, but also other related (and non-related) businesses….
Not long ago the idiot governor of Maryland announced a ban on ICE vehicles in 2035. Not a peep was heard from any of the dealerships in the state that sell new cars. IMO this would be like the state telling mobile phone retailers that in a certain upcoming year, they will no longer be able to sell I-Phones (or only I-Phones and not Android models). We all know that what would happen once said ban went into effect is all those who want the banned type of phone will travel out of state to buy one. And dealers in the state will lose a hefty portion of their customers. You’d think they’d have something to say about that…
The Chevy dealer in town just completed a nice, new show room and service facility earlier this summer. Too bad that in about 11 years time (if not before, especially if the federal gov’t gets its way) it will likely either be an empty building or will have been sold to another business.
The new Governor of Maryland, Wes Moore, is an Oprah “favorite thing” and being groomed to run for President as the second coming of Big Mike’s husband. He’s going to be all in on the EV agenda.
OTOH, the Maryland DOT kicked Transurban out of the state’s VDOT-like express lane projects on their side of the Beltway so there may be a glimmer of hope for you.
Similarities of the EV thing & Big Ag?
“…“How it works in brief is that this bacterium is fed hydrogen and oxygen inside a stainless-steel biorector, which enables it to multiply, ultimately producing a protein-rich slurry of dead bacterial biomass that, after treatment is suitable for human consumption.”
Where is the vomit emoji?
But, you can’t dismiss it as madness, because this is exactly what Bill Gates, China and every hedgie is foreseeing, hence the rapacious buy-up of every ruined farm in the developed world. The growth potential of manufactured food is so tempting, they are all in. The farms they let go to waste will act as carbon tax deductions for their “family office” for all eternity. […]
Because this is what you must know, you have to take away from this. Their math is wrong. It is almost always catastrophically wrong. Every disaster from the ‘08 housing collapse on was based on their bad math. Our impending fiscal cliff based on their bad math. China’s Evergrande collapse is based on bad math. Catastrophic climate change? Bad math. The pandemic was bad math beginning to end. Current inflation was caused by their bad math.
Smaje estimates that a true chemical food feeding of the urban masses would require three times as much electricity as the entire world produces. Monbiot has the cost at 12% of electricity generation.”…
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/10/no_author/the-men-with-the-pitchforks-will-win-the-country-party-will-win/
This EV business is just another part of the orchestrated demolition of the west, specifically the European and American car industry. They’re the only major industry we have left outside arms manufacturing and farming, and the arms dealers will be put to sleep after “we” lose WWIII. The farms are being bought up by our savior Billy Gates probably to grow more soybeans for fake meat.
Mazda and Toyota haven’t started drinking the EV kool-aid. Honda is wisely outsourcing EV models to GM. I haven’t heard big electrification announcements from the rest of the Japanese or Korean makes either, at least not on the level of the domestics or euro marques. ICE will still be available somewhere in the world but will probably be unaffordable to the little people here due to regulations and other economic reasons.
Buy another Beetle and a pile of spare parts Eric!
I wonder what the government told Ford and GM behind closed doors regarding electrification of the car industry? “Don’t worry boys, you are too big to fail, we got your back.”
Just one problem….the government forgot to tell the power companies how the green government has their back and where all this power is going to come from? (My estimate below)
USA automobiles consumes 134.55 billion gallons of gas/yr
Divide by 365 is 369MM gallons per day
Divide by 24 is 15.37 MM per hour.
1 gallon of fuel is worth 125,000 BTU of energy
Cars are between 12-30% efficient of power delivery to the wheels so split the diff can call it 24% or 30,000btu power usage.
Convert to KW X 0.000293=8.79 KW per gallon of gas
Assume a peak hour of gas consumption is done of 15.37mm gallons per hour X 366.5KW =135102300 KWH hour usage. However electric vehicles are 70% efficient so they say=193003285KWH
Electrical power generation is 60% natural gas and coal running at 45% efficient, nuclear is 20% running at 37% efficient, assume renewables 20% running at 70% efficient or overall 45% efficient.
KHW to MWH is 1930033285 X 0.001=193,000 MWH /.45 is 428,896 MHW + transmission losses of 12% or 88% eff is 487,382MWH based on all energy average per 24 hrs. but assume most is consumed during parked time or 12 hours then double the amount to 974,764MHW of power needed to be added to the grid with transmission lines to handle all electric vehicles and current consumption rate.
The U.S. electric grid has 1,143,757 MW and 9,200 electric generating units having more than 1 million megawatts of generating capacity connected to more than 600,000 miles of transmission lines.
Assume it takes on average $5mm/MW to build a plant ….5 trillion dollars?
So, to convert to electric cars we would almost certainly need to double the current entire electrical grid of the USA.
Just one small step for man.
Don’t forget Eric’s point about the leakage, the EVs use up power just sitting there parked.
Who in God’s name names anybody or anything ‘Edsel’?
My dad bought an Edsel, a 1959 year, a copper colored body, it was an Edsel. Didn’t last long, then to a 1965 Ford Galaxie four door hard top with no post. It was a nice car, loved to drive it. You were in another galaxy. The Ford Galaxie!
You thought you were in heaven. 352 cubic inches in those eight cylinders, it was light speed when behind the wheel.
“Buy this one,” I said to my dad.
Never can forget it.
The Texas power grid is maxxed out as of this year. An initiative on the ballot this November uses part of the state’s surplus to establish a slush fund for Capo Gecko and other parties to borrow against to bring contingency gas generating capacity online for the grid operator, ERCOT, to use in critical situations, but the actual hardware doesn’t have to be connected until 2029.
The drama rolls every day at the ERCOT web site, particularly in the early evening when people arrive home from work. For reference, 100,000 EVs represent 1500-2000 MW of usage for ~ 8 hours a day.
https://www.ercot.com/
Artificial scarcity. Ever since the Department Of Energy was created. Can’t have too much of anything, that’s inefficient. Maintain the correct balance of capaicity and demand, that’s how to do it according to the bureaucrat.
Until some new use comes along and then there’s a massive black swan scarcity event. “Who could have predicted that?” says the regulator? “Isn’t that your job?” says the public. “We need more data!” says the regulator, “And more control! If only that genie were to be stuffed back in the bottle, then everything will be wonderful again!”
Hi RK –
One of the saddest “what might have beens” of this business is what economy cars might have become – if they’d not been regulated off the market (and people seduced by debt into buying uneconomical cars they could not otherwise afford to buy).
What I mean is the elimination of basic cars – without AC (except as an option) and so on. Cheap, light cars – that could deliver better than 60 MPG without elaborate technology (e.g, hybrids) that any high school graduate could afford buy – and pay off – within three years.
Something like a Civic CRX – for around $12k or so.
Problem is, those cheap cars were hard to build. Mechanical linkages, vents piped, lots of stamped steel. Skills required. Lots of QC clean up because everything from wheels up is built on the line.
Compare that to the way it’s done now. Modular subassemblies that come from contractors all over the world. The dashboard, console, seats… all subassemblies. And wires that can be run in a central harness (or CANBUS), routed however you can with sharp bends. Easy to get through the factory with minimal rework.
Has anyone done or seen a study on the estimated “gas guzzler tax” that would be incurred if a legacy company just ignored this EV business and continued to build and sell their current ICE cars?
For example – if Toyota continued to crank out Corollas and Camrys? Even if the tax was so onerous that resulted in a $50k Corolla, would it still not be worth it to offer it?
I have to believe there would definitely be a market for it.
A very limited market. A couple of $50,000 Corollas in the driveway would require an annual *take home* household income of $150,000+ to realistically afford the vehicles’ purchase price, maintenance, and gas.
That is a very small portion of the households in the US.
Any dealer’s F&I room can tell you the facts more accurately than the brightest minds in the Eccles Building.
Hi Roscoe,
Yup! And then there’s the cost of modifying the house to be capable of “Level II” charging, without which an EV is essentially useless three out of seven days a week.
Which any given power distribution system to any given subdivision is absolutely NOT equipped to do. Not only would a separate 100 kVA 220V box be needed (480V, 3-phase, 4-wire would be better, but I won’t even speculate as to how to provide that to most residences) for EVERY home, but also, the line capacity and transformer stations. Essentially, the grid has to be completely re-wired. If that’s what mandated, I’d be buying Anaconda and Kennecott copper stock like no one’s business. But it’d still take YEARS to pull it off, and meanwhile, what of the WASTE of resources and people’s MONEY?
Hi Flip,
I think you answered your own question… how many could afford (or would want to buy) a $50k Corolla? It’s a wonderful little car. But $50k for a Corolla? And even if one was wanted at that price, how many could afford to pay it? The answer is – very few – not enough to make it worth making it.
At those prices, rebuilding the current stock looks a lot more attractive…so naturally, the ability of even the aftermarket to supply the needed parts will be frustrated by various Gubmint Fatwas. We here in Cali(porn)ia ALREADY have that, and the bureaucracy has the ironic acronym of CARB (California Air Resources Board). Such is the reach of this monstrosity that, for example, in my #1 son and I working on his 1966 Plymouth Fury II, we couldn’t even buy door and trunks locks via mail order from Summit Racing (which doesn’t have a retail location in CA, the nearest one is in Sparks, NV), since they didn’t have “authorization” from CARB to sell them. Door and trunk locks…which have…WHAT…to do with regulating emissions and/or California air quality? More like deliberate interference in keeping an old heap going.
Eric,
One, thankfully, Mazda and Toyota haven’t totally bought into EVs; they’ll be offering ICE alternatives for the foreseeable future.
Two, to say or insinuate that there’s been no progress on batteries is disingenuous. For example, the CitiCar of the 1970s could only do 30-35 mph for 30-40 miles. The GM EV1 of the early-mid 1990s could barely do 100. Today’s EVs can go much farther and much faster than either the CitiCar or the EV1 ever could.
Hi Mark,
It’s not disingenuous at all.
Do you know why the range of modern EVs is greater than those of the ’70s and into the ’90s? It is because they have battery packs that weigh almost as much as the EVs of the ’70s! Those EVs were focused on minimalism. Modern EVs are focused on performance and so are gratuitously wasteful of energy.
It takes 800-1,000 plus pounds of energy storage device – the battery – to move a modern EV 230-ish miles. If it had half the battery, it’d travel half as far… if it had a battery pack the size of a ’70s EV, it’d go about as far as a ’70s EV.
So much for the “breakthroughs” and “advances.”
Eric,
The EV1’s lead-acid battery pack weighed about 1,300#, while the NiMH pack weighed 1,250#. Isn’t that comparable, if not greater, than what modern Li-Ion packs weigh today? You can see the EV1 specs, including battery pack weights, here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
Granted, the overall curb weight of the EV1 was far lower; it never topped 3,000#, while today’s EVs weigh more than that. The Tesla Model 3’s curb weight is about 3,900#, and the battery pack comprises 1,060# of that. If anything, that makes today’s batteries and EVs more impressive, because the packs weigh less; the cars are heavier; yet, they can travel farther and faster. How is that not progress?
Oops, Tesla Model 3 specs are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3
Hi Mark,
The EV1 was still light – relative even to a new (non-electric) car. And the main reason new EVs are so heavy is because the only way to get them to go much farther than about 100 miles on a charge is to have a massively heavy battery, which is the only way feasible to be able to store the energy equivalent of about 6-7 gallons of gas (equal to less than 100 pounds, including the tank). It’s pathetically inefficient and wasteful.
Were they though? Prior to the early-mid 90s, when air bags became mandatory, economy cars weighed less than 2,500#; last time I checked, that’s much lighter than the EV1’s 2,900-3,000# curb weight. 2,500<2,900.
The EV juggernaut will be stopped. By the destruction of the car market. Few can afford one and even fewer want one. It’s a suicide pact for the major car makers to go along. They pretend that the market will stay the same as it has, failing to accept that EVs are a huge wrench thrown in the works. It’s obvious the Psychopaths In Charge have no desire for the market to remain the same. There has been no attempt to increase generating and grid capacity to accommodate any serious increase in EVs. Most grids have trouble with heating and air conditioning. Which means if you own one, you may not be able to charge it when it gets hot or cold.
To be fair ICE engines really don’t need more investment. I’m pretty sure they’re probably as good as they can get. Absent a stunning technologial development, they’re the most reasonable choice for personal transportation. Only the government can F this up and they are on it.
Hi Mark,
“To be fair ICE engines really don’t need more investment.”
This assumes stasis. Ten years ago, could you or anyone have imagined we’d have 700 horsepower V8s that idle as smoothly as 150 hp fours? That produced double the power of the V8s of 20 years ago – and use the same or even less gas? We cannot imagine what might be – and that’s precisely the point.
Indeed!
Imagine where they might be if the Psychopaths In Charge would get out of the way. Especially regarding Diesel.
I would be perfectly happy with a manual and V8 from ten years ago. Ah well.
The advancement has been in engine controls and the ability to mass-produce what would have been an exotic fuel-injection system only thirty or so years ago. Fundamentally, the ICE has NOT changed, it’s been incrementally improved…at a PREMIUM, of course. Even if such a contraption could be “clean” and/or “safe” enough to meet the arbitrary DOT standards of today, the simple Dodge Dart or VW Beetle of the 1960s won’t ever be sold in America again. Not because there wouldn’t be a demand for it…but precisely BECAUSE there would. Just not enough PROFIT in a controlled and contrived market for “basic transportation”.
The flip side is that now we have an EV market and it will also advance, despite the constant meddling and betting on the wrong horse by Uncle. Perhaps there will be a fundemental breakthrough in battery chemistry or manufacturing that makes it out of the laboratory. Or maybe the production of hydrogen will begin to scale (coupled with desalination run on nuclear power I could see it -even with horrible efficiency, just because nuclear has so much damn energy available). Or that cellulose ethanol process will finally make sense.
I’m not holding my breath for any of that.
What I can imagine is a return to rail on a wide basis, with a focus on frequency and convenience. Make it worth getting out of the car for, and people will use it. Make people stand on cold and windy train platform waiting for a hard plastic seat on the ever-delayed train that stops every other block (and requires union drivers that go on strike every 3 years), and they won’t. But that’s inevitably what we get, usually funded by a bond that was put up for vote by the morons in office.
I might just get that Keeeeeeev shirt. I knew when they changed the spelling from Kiev we were in for a massive psy-ops operation. This Hamas stuff seems off too. Paragliders and a few explosives to blow a fence? Something ain’t right here. The whole baby beheading thing? All lies. Look up the Jimmy Dore show and other alternative media. We’re fed such bullshit by the Daily Wire, Ben Shapiro and the MSM.
I agree, Mark –
And the more who wear the Keeeeeeeeeeeeeev shirt, the better!
Or those idiots sporting the Star of David who don’t know anything about Judaism.
Flashback, does anyone remember when they changed the spelling of the Koran to the Quaran after 911?
I’ll raise you, Swamp!
Who remembers when “Beijing” was Peking? As in duck?
Meanwhile, you never hear American cities pronounced with the cloying, supercilious correctness applied to Keeeeeeeeeeeeeev.
For instance, Ahlabahma.… Or NooooYoik.
The Chinese capital was called Peking all through my high school years, at least. I can’t remember when the change happened exactly though. I’m getting old, and the days blur together anymore.
I remember the child’s book by Marjorie Flack, “The Story About Ping”, who nearly ended up someone’s dinner on the Yangtze River. I guess it’s too “raciss and she-itt” to be in today’s elementary school libraries.
Touchee. I remember Peking being the capital. Not Bejing. Here’s another.
Mumbai instead of Bombay, India.
The Quaran justified keeping inflating the war on terra, and changing Peking to Bejing came after we knighted them with most favorable nation trading status. Shortly after Mao Croaked or when Dung Ping took over. Before zI ZI ping whatever the name of that commie bastard is.
‘Who remembers when “Beijing” was Peking? As in duck?’ — eric
‘Peking’ is spelled according to the Wade-Giles system for Romanizing Chinese, developed by the British in the 19th century.
‘Beijing’ is from the Pinyin Romanization system, adopted by China’s communist government in 1958 to standardize Roman-letter phonetic representation according to the Beijing dialect.
Like the Chicoms, Noah Webster in his dictionary imposed yankee phonetic spelling to replace British spelling, ‘such as defense [defence], color [colour], and traveler [traveller], and changed the -re to -er in words such as center. He also changed tongue to the older spelling tung, but this did not catch on.’ [Wikipedia]
One remains perplexed that Webster did not change Harvard to mimic the Bostonian pronunciation, Hahhhhvid, preferably with the nostrils pinched closed to produce a fine raspy whine.
Also Mao Tse-Tung became Mao Zedong. Still a mass murderer however you spell it.
I don’t remember exactly when it happened now, but I noticed.
I have one better. Mao-Tse-Tung became Mao Zhe Dong, even without actually having one, no less.
We’d have to ask one of his HUNDREDS of mistresses if “Chairman Mao” had one…or, for that matter, “Chairman Deng”, who likewise was one Oriental horn-dog in his time.
No matter the political system, absolute power CORRUPTS…ABSOLUTELY. Or at least it gets one laid.
Awesome. I forgot about that one too. Back in the 70’s it was Tung. They changed it to Dong after he croaked, as if to lionize the murderous bastard.
I think there’s a current movement to change India to ‘Bharat.”
Also some idiocy about changing the spelling of the country Turkey to Turkiye or something.
They can change it to “Stupid Hindu MORONS let perfect good beef run wild through their streets land” for all I care.
I like what, in an early Simpsons “Treehouse of Horror” episode, what Bart Simpson, with extraordinary telepathic and telekinetic powers, renames the USA…BONERLAND!
On my morning walk through downtown Tulsa today, I saw 2 Israeli flags flying on peoples’ homes.
“I support the latest thing!”
Sheesh. Someone pour me a drink.
RE: “and other alternative media. We’re fed such bullshit by the Daily Wire, Ben Shapiro and the MSM.”
I noticed that about a few others, esp. Citizen Free Press, man have they ever tripped over the edge & gone full-on rabid war-dog.
Hi Helot,
The ranks of “conservatives” are filled with flag-humpers and Israel-uber-alles types. They will cheer Joe Biden if he gets us into a war over this. I agree with Mike Adams over at Natural News, who is disgusted by the slaughter of innocents on both sides and appalled by the suffering (and potentially worse) that’s being engendered by the maniacs on both sides.