There’s an interesting irony about the state of the car industry that’s also a pickle of its own creation. Or – more finely – a pickle that’s the unintended result of the compliance complicity of the auto industry.
It went went along with the federal regulatory apparat’s regime of regulations pertaining to exhaust emissions that had become unreasonable by the mid-1990s but which had also served, prior to that, to make engines so tight (in order to comply with the fed’s emissions regs) that they – and the vehicles they were installed in – began to last too long.
By the mid-late 1990s, engines with 100,000 miles on them were in about the same or even better shape than the engines of the ’70s were with 30,000 miles on them. They didn’t burn oil – and they rarely needed more than an oil change, occasionally.
People began to realize this – and began to keep on driving the cars they already owned, rather than sign up for another round of payments on a new one they didn’t need.
Italicized to emphasize the fact.
Before the mid-late 1990s, it was generally necessary to buy a new car not long after it was paid off, which was possible (for most people) because it only took 3-4 years to pay off a car back in the ’70s and into the ’80s. This affordability made cars more disposable. And most people who could afford to did dispose of their car once it got to be about seven or eight years old because by then it was was old – not so much in years as fact.
It was common for the engine in a seven-or-eight-year-old car to be noticeably burning oil as a result of worn piston rings or leaking valve stem seals; the blue smoke coming out of the tailpipe was a clear and common sign of the fact. The car itself felt old, too. The suspension wasn’t what it was and probably the body was starting to rust, too. It felt – and looked – run down. Time to trade it in or turn it over to the kid – the just-minted newly licensed driver who needed an old car to get to his after-school job and to football practice (back in those days, high school kids normally drove themselves places, as soon as they were legally able to do so).
High school parking lots were full of high school kids’ six and seven year-old beaters. Their parents – adults – drove new cars. It was unusual to see a kid driving a 20-plus-years-old vehicle because most of them were in the junk yard.
Today, it’s routine for adults to drive older cars than high school kids’ first cars were, back in the ’70s and ’80s. And not just because they can.
They can’t afford not to.
The average new car takes 6-7 years to pay off because the average price paid for a new car is almost $50,000 as of last year. This keeps a lot of adults in their paid-for, older vehicles – which continue to be as or even more reliable than the latest crop of new vehicles, which have become less reliable – as well as more expensive – because of the complex technology built into them.
In order to be compliant with the latest round of unreasonable “emissions” and “safety” regs.
Italicized to make a point of the fact that the “emissions of any car made today are only fractionally less than those of a car made 20 years ago. And to make a point of the fact that new cars aren’t necessarily “safer.” They are merely kitted-out with more air bags and so on to protect people if they crash – which they are arguably more likely to do because they are more distracting to drive and because it is harder to see out of them.
All of this has had the unintended effect of making the latest crop of new cars cars less desirable than older cars, as well as less reliable and less affordable. And that, in turn, has created even more incentive for people who own vehicles made during the sweet spot era of circa mid-late 1990s through about 2010 or so even more interested in keeping their sweet-spot-era vehicles rather than signing up for almost a decade’s length of payments, at the end of which they’d more likely than not own a car that they’d probably need to get rid of because – by then – all of that baked-in complexity is apt to become unreliable and expensive.
That is to say, more expensive to keep than to replace – in terms of the monthly payments on something new – vs. the cost of a $2,500 repair on a credit card with a 22 percent interest rate, compounded monthly.
So people are being pushed to replace these more-expensive, less-reliable post-2010 vehicles more often. Which brings us back to where we used to be – and for similar reasons, now vs. then. Cars got better – more durable – in order to become compliant. And now they’re becoming less durable, because the car industry is all-in on complying – no matter how unreasonable.
No matter what it costs.
Because the industry thinks it will profit from all this cost – by making us pay for it.
But what if most people just decide to opt out of paying for it? What if they hang on to their Sweet Spot Cars, fixing them as necessary?
Indefinitely – if necessary.
It appears many are already doing exactly that as the total annual volume of new vehicle sales is down by some 2 million from its pre-pandemic peak – even though the population has increased by millions over the same time period.
Rubber – meet road.
And there’s very little the industry will be able to do about it, having complied itself into a corner.
. . .
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Ernie is correct, death by 1000 cuts. Jewgooberment at its finest, shit all over the people who actually work so they can chew on bagels and shuffle papers from 1 desk to another. Got an 03 2500 silverado, tank. Beat to shit, still goin, just like me. Low milage, thanks to Harley.
Did a full restoration on my 2010 Miata last year and have 290000 on the 2002 F250. You sleep well when you fix/maintain your own stuff.
I’m doing a front brake, tire, shock replacement because the ride on the car is so bad. Also, replacement of leaking radiator. All this on a 2008 Civic with 150k miles and will cost $1700. Is it worth it?
I forgot to mention head gasket replacement.
Hi Groundhog,
Is the car – itself – sound? I mean, is the body/chassis not rusted out? Is the car in generally sound mechanical condition? If yes, then spending $1,700 is chump change in my book. Even if all you get is one more year of reliable service. That would equate to a “monthly payment” of about $140.And more than likely, the car will prove to be reliable for at least another several years, reducing your monthly payment acccordingly.
I agree with you on so many levels, Eric. My newer vehicle is expensive as hell (per month payments). My one old timer friend (God rest her soul) would croak if she knew how much I was paying for it. Hell, an old timer I knew growing up, his first house (back in the 60’s) was $30,000! It is why I have kept my old, WRX (a 2007). It needs a bit of work, but it still runs good, it just has a lot of miles on it (235K). I would almost rather drop a new engine and turbo when the time comes, because not only is is a now-rare, standard transmission, but it does not have the safety crap on it. And with the threats of kill switches and speed limiters coming, this new vehicle I am paying on now may be my last. I would rather throw away money on my old vehicle (and keeping up the one I am driving), if at all possible. At least until the Feds start shooting us for not giving up our ICE vehicles. But maybe I should not give them any ideas…
I bought my 1999 Saturn SL2 (a manual, naturally) brand new off the lot for $13,000 cash, and I have put 182,000 miles on it in the last 25 years.
It’s never had any major repairs–a couple hundred dollars here, a couple hundred dollars there–but that’s it. In fact, many of the replacement parts in my Saturn have lifetime warranties as long as I own the car.
Do the math: Divide that $13,000 by the 300 months I’ve owned my Saturn and you get $43 per month. Add to that about $25 per month (average) in repairs, and you get $68/month or $816/year. Only $816/year for my car! Try to buy a car with a $68/month payment.
I will never, ever get rid of my Saturn.
Excellent,Geoffrey!
And: I miss Saturn, especially the small ones with the composite panels; they were light and great on gas and fun to drive – as well as affordable. GM used to make cars like that.
I bought the 1994 Saturn SL2 homecoming “ commemorative “ model with the “Bitchin “
Pearl opalescent finish..
huge hailstones hit it in St Louis one year
Put a few dents in the roof but never needed to be painted…
The State Farm guy said that model had some fancy triple paint application..
The paint job looked WILD under certain lighting….14 years 👍🎯
Oh yes
I forgot to mention how light the plastic..🤔…ummm….polymer door panels were…
And dent resistant!!!
Some geriatric backed into me as I was leaving a parking lot..lightly And no damage 👍 overall just a wonderful functional vehicle.
Ford ditches plans for EVs at Oakville Assembly, shifts to gas-powered F-Series pickups
https://www.teslarati.com/ford-ditches-plans-ev-oakville-assembly-shifts-to-gas-powered-f-series-pickups/
I just saw the most sickening thing possible today. A EV (4xe) Jeep at a local charging station. A symbol of American greatness neutered by Toxic Femininity. Who buys such a thing? Would you want to see Superman in pink tights and rhinestones?
Current fleet consists of a 2012 Q5, 2015 Passat and 2018 F-150, all with stupid low miles. I’m probably selling the truck and I am perfectly happy to pay to keep the others going for a bunch more years. Not exactly in your designated sweet spot but still comparatively boring when considering the new stuff.
As others have noted, an engine or tranny swap is still far cheaper than ponying up for a new one.
Here’s yet MORE proof that EVs are actually WORSE for the environment than regular gas powered vehicles…..lithium battery production for the EVs that the Biden regime and self-proclaimed “World Improvers” wish to force us into results in LOTS of so-called “forever chemicals”, or PFAS…..
https://thehighwire.com/editorial/the-crown-jewel-of-evs-lithium-battery-production-results-in-massive-forever-chemicals/
Tick tock, time’s up:
“Top Biden aides – including ones who initially urged him to fight on after the debate – are saying it’s now when, not if, Biden announces he’s not running.”
‘A staffer gave the 81-year-old president a note card with tips as he attempted to persuade members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus on Saturday that he was fit to serve and able to defeat former President Donald Trump on Election Day, the New York Times reported.
‘“Stay positive, you are sounding defensive,” Biden said on the call, seemingly reading directly from his staffer’s short missive.’ — ZH
“End quote.” [canned laughter] “Se habla espanol.” [canned laughter]
The Biden cacophony does not stop, incessantly continues unabated.
Two heads are better than one, even if one is a cabbage head.
“Favorites on the juke box are only half the show when it’s canned music.
Canned music playing on the radio…
Without a dime, it do not go.” – Dan Hicks and His Hot Licks
PredictIt probability of receiving D-party presidential nomination:
Kamala … 64%
‘Biden’ …. 23%
Gavin ……. 7%
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA967.jpg?itok=Pyq8vwff
Meet the new twat, same as the old bot.
But what if most people just decide to opt out of paying for it? What if they hang on to their Sweet Spot Cars, fixing them as necessary?
I think the reaction to that will be some sort of ban on cars with internal combustion engines, and not just new ones. Such a ban would not only remove reliable used cars from the roads, it would also provide an artificial market for the otherwise unsellable compliance EVs that auto manufacturers have bet the farm on producing in the near future, and hence the manufacturers themselves will probably be the biggest proponents of a ban.
You’re close, but if you watch what they’re doing with gun control, they’ll do the same thing. Death by 1000 cuts. I foresee waves of inspection mandates, insurance fuckery, and even more road Gestapo enforcing ever more trivial ukase.
It always continues until a measurable number stand up and reclaim their rights. Which is why I despise all cops and respect gang bangers and outlaw bikers.
The precedent has been established. Make ICE car owners an offer they can’t refuse. Just like diesel-gate. Sure, you’re welcome to continue to own your gasoline car, but it won’t pass inspection without a costly “fix” that will kill performance and efficiency. And any dealership repair work will also include the “repairs.”
Good stuff in here. I finally got my wife to understand these concepts. After getting her to give up on a new car (because our 100k mile Lincoln is now bricked) we got her the MB she wanted 20 years ago. 99 SL500 with less than 50k miles. She’s happy and the car is in such good shape (2 owners) I see us keeping it for years, or until she’s tired of it. Best part, we got a decent deal from some oldsters who had too many cars.
Question: Who is buying gold at 2500 dollars for a Troy ounce?
Answer: Only those who want it to further the return on the investment, technology rules the gold price.
Gold is a loser any other way. You want 25 Benjamins, not a speck of gold, no-brainer there.
Question: Who buys a cellphone for 1000 dollars?
Answer: Everybody.
Question: Who buys a device to move your crazed body to another place for 100,000 dollars?
Answer: Nobody.
Any old fool knows not to buy a Troy ounce of gold for 2500 dollars and the same old fool knows not to buy a newly minted Ford F-150 for 100,000 dollars.
The only difference ‘tween the men and the boys
Is the size of their feet and price of their toys– Men Will Be Boys by Guy Clark
Could it be,
That the car makers are happy to go along with the latest “safety” and “emissions” regulation as a counter to their previous cars being “excessively” durable, trouble free, and cheap to fix?
My wife’s 1999 Civic coupe: 178,000 miles. Uses no oil between annual service (our service / mechanic facility recommends synthetic oil) (which I suppose is okay). Proactive maintenance: replace anything that looks as though it will fail, replace timing belts every 50,000 miles. Drove it from Oklahoma to California, then back, cruised at 70, loaded with stuff and two dogs. Did not miss a beat. Paid cash for it (and for my 2007 Civic Si).
The 2012 Pathfinder, the bare bones one, is trucking along like a Fabulous Furry Freak Brother.
A rare comic book of the FFFB’s is 500 dollars.
I had to replace the two cam sensors and the crank sensor, about 350 dollars, stays on the road, that I know.
Used to be sending units, how the gauges work, now it is sensors or something. You have to know if the oil pressure is okay.
Time to trade in Biden for a different brand/make of politician.
He leaks a lot no matter where and everywhere he goes.
No joke? I have a box full of those old comics!
Volume 1 of the Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers in mint condition is valued at 2499 dollars.
Thanks for the reply.
These days it is cheaper to get a new engine put in and/or a new tranny than buy a new car.
You’ll be ahead almost $40k
Indeed, a “daily driver restoration” including engine, trans, suspension components, brakes, tires, good seat covers and a cheap paint job are way cheaper than new. But you cant finance it with GMAC EZ credit. So average schmoe wont go for it. And the insurance shylocks wont cover it for what it’s really worth.
Everyone wants to feel their work is important. I imagine even more so for the average bureaucrat. Imagine having a job at the EPA, you’ve “paid your dues” at the field office, done the training (or got the law degree) and managed to get yourself into an office with a window in DC. Pretty nice gig if you’re of that mindset. You could just go about your day keeping the chair on the floor, taking meetings about the latest new policy, keeping track of statistics.
Or, you could do “the work of the people” and attempt to sway policy. That’s much more fun of course, and you get the credit when it gets implemented. We, the people, will never know this person, but that doesn’t matter. We’re little people. The DC elites though, they’re the ones who matter. Maybe you get to take a meeting with a congressional aide, to set up a meeting with a representative or (gasp) senator to discuss the language in a new bill. You spend weeks preparing, the plans are in place, and you head “up to the hill” for the meeting (even if it happens on Zoom).
But what if the senator asks questions? Will your staff have anticipated all the queries? Will his staff have telegraphed the correct approach to the pending legislation? What happens when there’s a non-issue, such as what we seem to have with most vehicle regulations today? Well, that’s when you warm up the spreadsheet and start changing summary cells to percentages instead of raw numbers. Going from 10 PPM to 5 PPM is a 50% reduction of almost nothing to even less than nothing, yet that “big gain” from the new regulation is the big payoff for you and your contribution to the end of society. And you make sure everyone on The Hill knows that statistic as a percentage, never as a raw number.
Political scholasticism, writ large. And unfortunately it works.
Stossel says it better than I can. Too bad I didn’t read this first could have saved myself some time.
https://www.johnstossel.com/trumps-promises-deregulation/
Hi Ready. I would rather read an independent explanation from the heart rather than a lengthy copy and paste. It looks like you’ve followed the KISS principle perfectly in your explanation. This ties in somehow with the old saying that it’s hard to convince someone that their wrong when their job depends on them being wrong, or words to that effect.
I better most EPA staff in DC are still working from home. Time to end the EPA.
My 24-year-old Sierra is hands down the best car/truck I’ve ever owned. I’ll keep wrenching on it as long as I’m able & have the know-how.
It’s been through 3 water pumps, a fuel pump (which is a PITA compared to the old way), steering column u-joint, 2 windshield washer pumps. The single biggest repair I’ve paid someone to do was a $2K transmission rebuild a few years ago. If I knew someone trustworthy I’d have ’em rebuild the engine –sleeves, rings, valves, maybe a bigger cam, etc.
It needs the vacuum gizmo that selects where airflow goes replaced, new window trim, power mirror motors, AC condenser/evaporator, engine/cab/bed mounts, and could stand a paint job & the have the seats re-leathered.
Keep in mind it’s on its way to 400K miles. While ol’ girl burns oil, it’s not severe enough to do anything about.
Just a quick update for my EP friends, watched a YouTube video on why the air is stuck in a defrost mode. It was a simple fix replacing the blend door actuator. $57 at the local auto parts store and a borrowed oddball size socket (5.5 mm).
I keep hoping that the automakers will jump on the Supreme’s Chevron deference smack down and tell the EPA and NHTSA to pound sand and stuff their CAFE and “emissions” regs, along with the saaaaaafety crap. Unfortunately they seem to be all in with Fedgov……yes sir may I have another.
They’re too heavily invested in the current system. It keeps them in their comfortable little high margin bubble. No way will they risk that.
My ’98 Ford sadly is leaking more and more tranny fluid lately. It used to reliably go about 500 miles before needing a quart of tranny fluid unfortunately the leak is accelerating and it now needs a quart every 250 miles.
Since I like the car I’m now in a bind. Do I pay for a rebuild or just keep pouring fluid into it. The tranny shifts great and does not slip. The car is solid and rust free with good body and paint and everything still works. I’ll probably get my mechanic to check over the car to make sure that there’s no other surprises lurking and get it rebuilt as I’m unlikely to find another in that shape for what a rebuilt tranny costs.
Hi Landru,
If the transmission is operating properly and just leaking fluid, then all you’ve probably got is a front/rear seal leak. Or even a transmission pan leak. The pan leak is easy to fix and you could easily do it yourself. Regardless, it’s not a catastrophic problem!
Hi Eric,
A few years ago my mechanic replaced all the seals that you could get at (before needing to remove the tranny) which stopped most of the leaks and contacted their recommended tranny shop who said it was an internal seal and the cost difference between replacing just the seal and a full rebuild was about 500 dollars.
This all started after getting the car out of storage about 12 years ago or so and the tranny started blowing fluid out of every seal. It was a heck of a site to behold let me tell you. As it was a low mileage car the fluid had never been changed. The car changes it’s own fluid now…..
Most of the repair bill is labor and while occasionally I see this model in the wrecking yard the trannys are not renowned for long service and my car is one of the higher mileage ones I’ve seen.
I’ll check the car over to be just be sure it’s not a cheap fix to get it up to it’s previous leak rate which was borderline acceptable but since it’s heading to ludicrous leak level a more permanent repair may be needed I fear.
Hi Landru,
Is this a rear-drive or FWD vehicle? If it’s RWD, checking/replacing the rear seal (at the back of the transmission) is easy; you just have to drop the driveshaft (not a hard job). It’s the front seal/pump/torque converter that is a pain because you will need to remove the tranny to deal with this. It could be worth just doing that and having the tranny gone through if the rest of the vehicle is in good shape. Even if the cost is say $3k or so. If you get another even two years out of this vehicle, I think that’d be money very well spent.
Hi Eric.
It’s a ’98 Contour with a 2.0 liter engine, 4 speed automatic, non turbo. This car has only seen 1 winter’s worth of road salt in it’s life. I’ve got some spare parts including body panels in the same color.
I tell all my cars that if they stay reasonably reliable I won’t send them to a u-pull it yard. Sounds funny but they have all been mostly reliable but I’ve had drive trains rebuilt, quarters replaced, cars painted you name it. My last couple cars I managed to find new homes for and my old Vic became a dirt track car and is still alive years after I gave it away.
Good morning, Landru!
Your Contour sounds like a keeper to me. Well worth the expense of dealing with its transmission issue. Fix that and you’ll more than likely not have ot fix anything big again for years. That strikes me as money well-spent!
I would look at…..converting to manual trans…….or sell it and buy one with a manual trans…
Fords, at least the bigger trucks, are notorious for the seal between the engine and transmission leaking. Easy fix but will require dropping the transmission to install.
12 years ago we had the leaking transmission in our ‘91 Chev truck rebuilt. While apart they also replaced the rear engine seal and then the leaking intake manifold gaskets. All in around $3800.
Remember, 12 years and not another major repair since then. Truck is under cover here in central WA and isn’t driven in winter (salted roads). Paint still great, also the interior except for some dash cracks from prior sun exposure and age.
It was worth every dollar spent on what some would consider a huge expense on a then 21 year old truck. If all else is in decent shape that transmission is way less than a replacement rig. Here in WA sales tax is around 10%, 10% of a $75000 new truck buys a lot of fix ups for your existing rig.
“You spent more than it’s worth!” Really? Humm … not an issue for me to continue using something I like, well “worth” it to me! Cost avoidance is way more important to my budget.
This is why I tell friends to take an Introductory Auto Tech course at the local community college. Invest in that and a basic set of metric sockets and wrenches and you can make a Japanese car last forever.
I daily a 28 yo Subaru Impreza coupe 5 speed…It does not burn oil..not rusted out.. NO ABS or other stupid shit new cars have. Best thousand dollars I ever spent.