Most people aren’t buying battery powered devices because most people don’t want to spend so much time waiting for a device’s battery to charge back up. This is the insurmountable problem.
Range has never really been a problem at all.
It has never been a problem for motorcycles, at any rate – many of which have a range of around 150 miles or so before they’re close to running on reserve. It was never a problem for even the gas-guzzliest of V8 road hogs from the ’60s and ’70s – some of which barely managed 10 MPG.
Because it took almost no time to get more gas.
Put another way: Stopping for gas – even if you had to do it a couple of times a week – is a minor inconvenience rather than a major hassle. It is exactly that when you have to wait even 15 minutes at the very “fastest” of “fast” chargers to get a partial charge.
It is improbable that it will ever be possible for a battery to receive a full charge in just a few minutes for several reasons – among them the inherent problems that arise for batteries when they are subjected to extremely high voltage recharging, which is the only known way to “fast” charge a device’s battery. They get hot – and their internal cell architecture gets stressed, increasing the risk of a fire as well as increasing physical degradation of the battery, itself – reducing its useful service life. This is why even “fast” charging is limited to about 80 percent of battery capacity and also why regular “fast” charging is not recommended by device manufacturers such as Ford, among others.
That 80 percent charge business is a kind of compounding problem because “80 percent” means you resume your trip with 20 percent less range (effectively) than you’d have had with a full charge – unless you have the time to wait even longer than you already have (about 15-20 minutes, at the least, at the “fastest” chargers) for the 80 percent.
If a battery could be fully charged in just a few minutes, it would negate the range issue and perhaps make battery powered devices functionally competitive with gas-powered vehicles. The cost disparity would still have to be addressed. But at least devices could be driven without having to spend so much time not driving.
In Germany – where the “market” for battery powered devices is “sluggish,” according to Ward’s Automotive, an industry trade journal, a survey was presented that asked respondents the following:
“Manufacturers of electric vehicles are adopting swappable batteries. When a battery is depleted, it can be replaced with a fully charged one at a specialized service station. How do you view this system compared to electric vehicles with fixed, non-swappable batteries?”
The question is a loaded one, of course.
It assumes certain foundational givens that are entirely speculatives, chief among them the assertion that a device’s battery “can be replaced with a fully charged one.” If it could be – more finely, if it could be done in the same amount of time it takes to fully refuel the average gas-powered vehicle – then of course most people presented with this question would “view” such a “system” with approval vs. “electric vehicles with fixed, non-swappable batteries.”
As they saying goes, duh.
For pretty much the same reason most people presented with a better alternative will generally choose it. The problem is this alternative isn’t one. It is a hypothetical – and improbable – construct.
What would be necessary to make it feasible to swap out a device’s “empty” battery pack for a “full” one in the same time it takes to fully refuel a gas-engined vehicle?
Well, for openers, devices – or at least, device batteries – would have to be standardized. They’d need to be pretty much the same type and shape and spec for every device. So that when your particular device needs a “full” (ready-charged) replacement battery, there’d be one exactly like the one in your device that fits and is designed to work with your device.
And of course your device – all devices – would have to be physically compatible with the removal/replacement equipment.
But every make/model device is different in terms of its shape as well as the physical size and shape of its battery pack and the specifications of the battery pack. Absent standardization, a battery swap facility would have to be a massive facility (and there would need to be many of them, located all over the country) to accommodate the different sizes and spec battery packs that would have to be on-hand for this swap idea to be feasible – before even getting into how it could be doable to remove and replace a device’s battery in the same amount of time it takes to fully fuel an average gas-powered vehicle.
Think about the variety of shapes that 12V starter batteries come in – and they are much smaller and so take up much less shelf space at the auto parts store or Wal Mart. A device battery is huge – and heavy. It weighs close to 1,000 pounds on the low end (for small-sized devices) to twice or more that for devices shaped like trucks and SUVs. It would take an enormous warehouse and heavy-duty lifting (and installation) equipment to deal with the removal, replacement and restocking of device batteries.
This would get into money.
Who is going to pay for the facilities? Probably you and I – via the government. It has plenty of our money to spend on such projects.
Ask Jenny Granholm.
But it won’t solve the time-suck problem. Because it is improbable it will ever be possible to remove/replace a device’s battery – even if standardized – in the less than five minutes it takes to fully fuel a gas-engined vehicle. Maybe one or two at a time. But how about half a dozen? How many robotic R&R lines would be needed to replicate the throughput you have at a typical gas station that has six pumps that can fully refuel six vehicles at the same time in less than than five minutes?
Rube Goldberg, phone home.
“I don’t want to wait an hour or more to charge my car on a road trip,” said one of the survey respondents. “Swapping batteries makes so much sense – it’s like filling up a gas tank.”
Except it ain’t – and probably never will be.
. . .
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11 Reasons why the “EV Transition” will NEVER happen | MGUY Australia
Mark P Mills gave an extended talk on EV mandates in November, at Hillsdale College, Michigan, and in this video…. MGUY…an engineer…. extracted 11 key points that explain why the much vaunted “EV transition” will never happen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9HfuM-sYxQ
EV Mandates vs. Freedom | Mark P. Mills
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8Nz-4eEBTw
If readers here (many familiar names) and myself and Eric were naive we could innocently ask ourselves why TPTB are hell bent on forcing us out of reliable gas guzzling vehicles and into more expensive and unreliable EV’s. But we all know the answer and their desperation is starting to show as more are waking up to the realities of EV’s. I am just waiting for the day when the Feds just flat out tell us they are forcing us into these (for the earth, blah blah) whether we like it not and then dare anyone to defy them when the rubber meets the road. No pun intended.
Swapping out EV batteries is NEVER going to happen. The reason people are not buying EVs is because they are too expensive. No one has close to $100,000 to buy a vehicle. Hell, new ICE vehicles are too expensive.
I will say it again LOUDLY for the ‘Ho (NYS Governor Hochul) to hear in Albany:
If you want the lowly plebes to buy EVs you have to MANDATE them. Take your magic pen and write an executive order that mandates only EVs are allowed on NYS roads by the year 2035. After 2035 no ICE vehicles can be registered in NYS. Easy peasy. Problem solved.
Of course the exodus from NYS will be massive, but someone has to take charge and save the planet. Right ‘Ho?
In order for electric cars to be practical, they have to replace the battery with something else.
Chemical batteries just won’t cut it. Too big, too heavy, too dangerous, too expensive, not green, too slow refueling, too short lifespan. As far as I know, there is nobody working on an alternative to chemical batteries for electric vehicles.
ICE is going to be the main power for vehicles for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the government thinks it can regulate something into existence. They are the ones not listening to science.
Forget them listening to Science. They are just making it up as they go along and then calling it as such. Kind of like the “safe and effective” BS we hear from the pharmaceutical companies. Both of whom are only worth listening to so as to keep ones enemies closer.
“If a battery could be fully charged in just a few minutes, it would negate the range issue”
not really…charging stations and proximity to them is the issue. Especially in cold weather states.
swap out batteries ? first you have to get at them, then a fork lift ?
Travel batteries on a towable trailer for long distance journeys, swap out in minutes while on the way to destination. Imagine a Uhaul type infrastructure.
“EV’s” are a bad joke. Tech’s not there, and proponents leave out the drawbacks in their zeal to push them. Lay all the cards on the table and it’s laughably obvious that EVs fall right in with our government’s attempts to control what kind of stoves we cook with, what kind of light bulbs we can buy, and all the rest of government’s politically-motivated actions to control us.
“Drive an EV and save the planet”….right. /sarc
I would think they would just standardize the car, and swap those out, rather than batteries. This way, a swap would take a matter of seconds, if it were run well. Of course, they would all go to shit quickly, as any such “public” property scheme tends to have such an effect on the property.
Hi BaDnOn,
Yup – and then we’d have electric Trabants, basically. An American take on the Soviet one-size-fits-all card.
Dump the EV’s, gas powered engines are the Wave of the Future, EV’s have a higher carbon footprint and the replacement battery cost is ridiculous. The notion that we are running out of oil is another lie told to the masses on a daily basis, just ask anyone in the oil industry if you want the truth.
Swapping battery packs is stupid. Think about what a new battery pack costs. If you bought a new car would you be willing to go to a station and swap it for a ten year old pack? Also, every type of vehicle uses different size and wattage packs so a standard size is not possible.
It works for propane cylinders.
Does it? Try getting a tank swap for a 100lb propane cylinder.
Battery operated power tools are the model here.
The tools have a swappable battery pack.
When one dies, you just pop it out, put it on the charger, and take the “full” one that was on the charger and pop it into the tool. Quick and you keep working with little delay.
Developing cars that have swappable battery packs instead of the massive fixed-in-place battery array as they do now MIGHT POSSIBLY help EV be more usable and attractive to people in some parts of the market. If the cost is less than or comparable to owning and operating an equivalent ICE.
It won’t change the reality that EV has a higher “carbon footprint” than ICE so isn’t “carbon friendly” or “carbon neutral” as they claim (look that one up for yourself. As an engineer I’ve been saying that for years, and now the data is in and my statements are vindicated).
It won’t change the reality that “carbon” is not a driver of “climate change” so which one edges out the other in terms of “carbon” is academic anyway.
It won’t change the truth that MANDATING a technology that nobody wants, based on some pseudo-science claims about how the new technology will “save us from” a claimed but unverifiable “catastrophe”, is a bad idea that the government seems set on implementing.
But yeah, let’s try to develop an EV with a quick-change battery pack and set up the gas stations to also be a service station “battery rental” network. The car manufacturers will of course all need to standardize on ONE or TWO types of battery – just like all ICE run on one or two grades of fuel, so we can make this work with the infrastructure we already have (gas stations are already “everywhere”) so it can be easily adopted.
Five minutes to refuel? Maybe for something with a 40-50 gallon tank like a truck with dual tanks?
If I went to a station that had pumps that slow, I would only pump 1 gallon and then move on to a functional fueling station.
Average pump flow rate is supposed to be about 10 gallon per minute. My current daily driver is a 22 gallon tank. Two minutes and I’m out of there.
There are many great commercial applications for battery-only vehicles (like local delivery trucks), but this article adroitly explains why there is no current trajectory for personal use vehicles (except as toys). If it weren’t for forcibly confiscated taxpayer “free” money, auto makers would long ago have mainstreamed hybrids.
Well, the whole “save the earth” thing is a massive ‘grift’! I’m just a retired truck driver because that’s what I wanted to be. Back when I started it was a very good career choice. Then came the feds…I just wanted to let you know that I’m no genius. But, the answer to this issue is; hydrogen-fueled vehicles! I’ve read a lot about their issues, and all that’s needed is a cheaper way to extract hydrogen from the atmosphere. There’s plenty of time to work that problem out instead of pushing EVs, which as I stated earlier is a massive scam designed for the rich to get richer. That my fellow prisoners of the federal government is the real issue at hand. Congress needs to make laws that protect and enrich the lives of the citizens of America, not their lobbyists and themselves. The truth is in this saying from the Holy Bible; “The Love of Money is the root of all evil”! even they ignore the Constitution when it interferes with their enrichment…They need to finance the technology needed for the extraction issue, instead of being the police, and providers for foreign wars as they’re doing right now!
Unfortunately, it’s not just the government. Many dildos forget that nothing lasts forever, including earth. And general destitution is not going to change that!
Hydrogen would be better than EV batteries, but it also has some serious technical hurdles. Mainly that the H2 molecule is so small and hard to control, so it’s prone to leak through pores in materials. It’s highly explosive, but that can be addressed. Biggest problem is that the chemical bond when it oxidizes doesn’t release enough energy, so it has to be stored at really high pressures.
Really, again, why bother. Liquid natural fuels are a truly superior way to run a transportation system. Manmade global warming is an almost complete lie and a complete irrelevancy. The carbon bond/carbon cycle is fundamental to life on this mud ball, and all the manufactured fear and hysteria doesn’t change the fact that CO2 is a good thing and has been many times higher in past eons.
“The lack of money is the root of all evil.” Alfred E Neuman 😁
I keep my beer in an appliance. I don’t “drive” one.
ROTFL
There are close to 100 different case sizes for a basic 13.8 volt starter battery. It appears the snob trinket evee device is built around its own lithium ion demigod, just like this little doge tag im tappin at.
Maybe we can try the “slide in replacement” idea out with say. . . heater cores, and see how that works out before reinventing the stupid electric car again.
The time it takes to charge an EV would be annoying to me. The bigger issue would be the cost of a replacement battery. Currently I have seen estimates from $15,000,00 to over $60,000.00.
One of my vehicles has a 28 year old Dodge/Jeep 318 (5.2L) in it. It has 194,000 miles on it and still runs strong. It burns about a quart of oil every 3000 miles. I can get a quality rebuilt engine for around $2500.00 plus installation when/if this one goes kaput. How many battery packs would an EV need in those same 28 years of use and at what cost?
EV’s are destined to be throw away items like old cell phones.
How many swaps until the electrical connectors are compromised? One loose connector in a high amp draw system, woo hoo! My winter project is replace the house 20 year old electrical outlets, many are not connecting well as the interior contacts have spread a bit. YouTube video explains the problem. Relatively cheap fix in the house not so much in that EV.
Bolted battery connectors most secure (?) and how long is that going to take? Springs? Overcenter (visegrip) levers? Mugwump at the swap center going to do it right with a hangover? Cooling system similar issues.
Yes indeed, One tiny brush failure can kill an alternator. And thats the tip of the electronics iceberg on a sunny day.
Cars are best powered by gas.
Household duplex outlets are usually pretty cheap things. They aren’t a bad design, but they are designed to be mass marketed and replaced when they fail. It is possible to design a much higher quality connector. Also, much of the wear on an outlet comes from spark erosion when things are unplugged under load, or simply overheat from too heavy a load, like a space heater or window AC. For a high current connection like a EV battery a better quality connection would indeed be in order.
The batteries weigh 300-400 lbs. Most are bolted in with Many fasteners to stiffen the frame whose frequency has been lowered by the extra mass. These days beauty panels add an additional dimension. The primary concern would be warranty damage, these things are so expensive as they wear they drive the value down faster than ICE vehicles, mfgrs don’t want them back. Then there is storage/fire issues. Twice as many batteries, lithium mining and disposal. On paper it looks good. Charging through the roads like RC cars is most likely where this is heading. $$$
Charging through the roads like RC cars is most likely where this is heading.
Turning EVs into glorified trolley pods would only be yet another desperate hack to compensate for what isn’t working in the first place.
Got superconductor in yr back pocket there genius. Show me.
That ain’t a superconductor, I’m just glad to see ya…
Let’s not forget that EVs “leak” energy, even when not being used. This is akin to a leaking gas tank in an ICE vehicle.
In addition, in very cold temperatures, EVs use the charger energy to keep the battery pack warm, slowing down the charge rate considerably. In fact, in extremely cold temperatures there are instances where none of the charge energy is going into the battery, all of it being used to keep the battery at optimum operating temperature.
Scotty Kilmer says you need a four-point lift and then another lift to get under the car to lower the battery.
“Nobody wants to work on the stupid things”
Hi Drump,
My buddy who is a professional mechanic won’ deal with them. Doesn’t want the fire risk. Also, some of these things – like the Hummer EV- weigh close to 10,000 pounds and better be sure your lift is rated to handle that!
Not to mention the environmental impact and fire risk associated with the creation and storage of extra batteries…
British Petroleum publishes a yearly energy report, it’s the Bible of Petroleum statistics.
There are an estimated three trillion barrels of oil proven reserves.
The Orinoco Basin in Venezuela has over one trillion barrels.
100,000,000 barrels consumed each, times 365 equals 3,650,000,000 barrels in one year.
In 100 years, there will be a total of 365,000,000,000 consumed oil products from refineries.
A trillion barrels should last 300 years, looks like 900 to 1000 years of oil consumption with those three trillion barrels.
There will still be 2,635,000,000,000 barrels to go, by the year 3000 CE, you’ll be needing some more from someplace.
Not much of an emergency, the end of oil is a long ways away.
Elon needs to rocket to Mars, today.
Peak oil does get this much right, that oil becomes gradually less profitable and more expensive to extract. But there are many ways to synthesize natural fuels and make them indefinitely. It would be a great way to actually use unreliable power like solar and wind, simply use it to synthesize natural fuels.
We have the technology. It is called “plants”.
The first well to be hydraulically fractured was drilled by Colonel Edwin Drake.
At 69 feet, the oil was there. A Roberts torpedo was lowered into the drill hole at the 69 foot depth, water filled the casing, tamped, boom, oil releases from the point of the explosion. You can hydraulically fracture water wells, you’ll have more water from the well.
Have to use clean water.
From five barrels per day to refine crude to 100,000,000 per day is an accomplishment, a success story.
100,000 whales harvested each year from the oceans was a miserable job. By 1859, it was peak whale oil.
Titusville went bust, no more oil, better places to drill.
Might as well look for some more.
Commercial development of crude oil started in Pennsylvania, Pennzoil has a good ring to it.
Go to Ohio, gotta be some oil there. Rockefeller bought 6,000,000 barrels of malodorous oil, 20 cents for skunk oil is still going to cost 1.2 million dollars.
He hired Hermann Frasch, a chemist, to remove the skunk odor, refined the oil to kerosene, the beginning of Standard Oil, and the perfectly refined kerosene didn’t catch fire. Ohio has 60,000 producing oil and gas wells, that’s no lie.
Whales are deeply grateful for John D. Rockefeller.
So do the Eskimos.
Has to be more oil in other places, Texas, Louisiana, Texaco and Gulf Oil, oil companies form to do some business, supply and demand rules the game.
When you gas up, you not only save the whales, you save the planet to boot.
Stop wasting precious resources on war and conflict, you’re a bunch of damn dumb fools. Your infamy will stand for centuries.
Baku white oil is the good stuff, along with Louisiana sweet.
Oil is a fungible resource. Gets sold like hotcakes.
Cerro Azulgushed 260,000 barrels per day. Still produces oil to this day, was drilled in 1915.
Might be some oil in the Middle East if you prospect for it. Saudi Arabia has copious amounts, Conehead massive in quantity.
Good municipal systems are a luxury, electricity is in high demand.
Just a better world out there for obvious reasons.
Oil is the primary reason for it all to be like it is.
Can’t be denied.
Internal combustion can’t be beat.
Everybody makes mistakes.
My math is all wrong, 100,000,000 barrels per day is 36,500,000,000 barrels per year. A trillion barrels will be consumed in 30 years, not 300. The correct answer.
So sorry for the error. 100 years to go or so they say.
It’s been going on for 70 years at the 100,000,000 barrels pace, should all be gone by now by those stats. Three trillion in reserves is small potatoes.
Have to doubt the official narrative of peak oil, Edison was a peak oiler, long ago now. Edison was wrong there.
More than a trillion barrels in ten years, there wouldn’t be any oil left to burn.
Somebody is lying through their teeth, seems to be limitless supply for years on end. What gives?
Of course, all the estimated proven reserves could also be all wrong, more oil than you can shake a stick at in this world
So, it probably answers the question that oil is being generated all of the time, then it can’t be any other way.
It does beg the question of how much oil is in the ground.
That would be kelp from hundreds of millions of years ago over hundreds of millions of years.
Lots of kelp out in those oceans, it will pay off, and does.
Although, soybean oil, sunflower oil and canola oil and other oils from plants will help some., crude oil dominates the market.
Nothing beats crude oil, just the way it is.
More than likely from plants like kelp.
It is improbable that it will ever be possible for a battery to receive a full charge in just a few minutes for several reasons
That doesn’t mean that the expectation of a 0-100 % charge in five minutes or less is unreasonable – on the contrary, it is an extremely modest expectation, which ICE-powered cars have been able to meet for decades. What it does mean is that for the purpose of energy storage and replenishment in an electric vehicle, battery technology is unfit for purpose, and it is the EV manufacturers’ decision to use this technology that is the problem, and not our expectations.
Bucee’s has 120 gas pumps. Try matching that with electric battery exchange!
Swappable batteries are an option. It only takes some engineering, the batteries would have to be standardized into something like an small/medium/large/XL model, enclosed in steel or titanium or maybe Kevlar, with QD mounts for the mechanical, heating/cooling, and electrical connections.
The service station could have the batteries stored underground, with the EV rolling in on top, and a robot underneath removing the old battery and sending it off on a conveyor or smart dolly to a charging and evaluation fixture, and retrieving the replacement battery and installing it. We do this kind of stuff in industry all the time and I could see it being a 2 minute process.
The downsides? Batteries are individuals, and would have to be evaluated every time for capacity and safety. And there would have to be some guaranteed minimum charge level, say 80% of rated capacity as you would be paying for a full (e.g.) 250 miles/ 80kWh, so you aren’t getting cheated by getting stuck with junk batteries. There would have to be some sort of tracking system/quality control for the battery throughout its life, and I guarantee government will have its snout in the process.
It is entirely feasible to do this, and if we transition heavily to nuclear power and upgrade the grid capacity by an order of magnitude it might even work.
But why would you bother when we already have very cheap, efficient, and clean refillable liquid battery technology in every vehicle made? Because a battery is just a storage device, an electrochemical one is inefficient, heavy, and has varying severe hazards, not the least of which is very toxic pollution.
We will eventually run short of liquid natural fuels, but we are nowhere close to that, and there is no rush to force such a change. Until we have nuclear or dilithium crystal batteries, electric motored vehicles are a curiosity and a toy.
Your statement:
We will eventually run short of liquid natural fuels, but we are nowhere close to that, and there is no rush to force such a change.
…is demonstrably false.
That is what the liquid and gaseous energy haters would like you to believe.
First of all, let’s get rid of the term “fossil fuels”.
Naturally-occurring hydrocarbons are “abiotic”.
Hydrocarbon products are constantly being created deep within the earth by yet-unknown processes well below the layers that contain fossils. Keep in mind that hydrocarbons migrate upward and pass through “fossil layers” picking up remnants of “fossil” material; hence, the present-day scientists’ stupid, ignorant mistaken assumption that hydrocarbons are derived from “fossils”.
Oil interests are drilling wells at 5,000 feet, 10,000 feet, and 15,000 feet and deeper, and coming up with oil deposits well below the layers and levels where “fossils” were known to exist.
As Russia gained much expertise in deep-well drilling and coming up with oil deposits far deeper than that of the level of “fossils”, abiotic oil at extreme depths was actually a Russian “state secret” for a long time.
“Peak oil” and “fossil fuels” are discredited dishonest concepts that environmentalists and others are latching on to, in order to display their hatred of oil being a renewable resource as well as to push prices up.
Follow the money.
Naturally-occurring hydrocarbons have done more to advance civilization than any other influence. It is the discovery, creation and utilization of ENERGY that propels civilizations upward and onward.
We have more oil underneath our feet than the rest of the world. In fact, we became energy independent under Trump. That trend was reversed with the Biden regime.
In fact, one of Saturn’s moons (Titan) is primarily composed of hydrocarbons (without “fossils”).
For a good treatise on abiotic oil, please google L. Fletcher Prouty. He is a scientist who gives a good explanation of “abiotic oil”.
I am well aware of all this and did not use the term fossil fuels.
There are actually fossil fuels, but they are a subset of natural fuels and tend to be closer to the surface and geologically more recent.
We may be depleting the natural fuel reservoirs faster than they naturally replenish. Or maybe not, but we do use a lot of it and waste a lot of it. So you make some good points but it is not demonstrably false.
Thanks again for defossilizing the discussion. Some people still wanna hear it from Paul Harvey first.
Thanks for the reminder of L. Fletcher.
A young oil formation is going to have plenty of natural gas and volatile crude oil. An old formation, the Madison, will have little natural gas and a dark green color, heavy oil. Takes millions of years to develop, Mother Nature does the job, nobody else.
One oil well produced oil for a good 50 years, they go dry. New ones are drilled, the formation continues to produce, lots of oil out there on the planet.
You need kerogen and heat to get zee oil. The oil is hot and the natural gas flies high when a blowout occurs. Lots of pressure there too.
Leigh Price did a study on the Bakken Formation in North Dakota, Tioga is the spot where the Bakken depocenter is.
Leigh Price estimated 500 billion to 900 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken Formation. From 1000 wells in 2008 to more than 16,995 today is the real deal. The well count in the Bakken alone speaks volumes.
So does 1.1 million barrels each day. Makes a difference in the world oil market.
The state geologist in North Dakota had oil companies log the drill cores, that knowledge is very valuable today.
Leigh Price’s study consists of 258 pages based on the drill cores from oil company oil wells drilled.
The lithofacies told the story.
An oil well was drilled on the Henry Bakken farm back in 1956, took all winter to drill the well. Hence, Bakken Formation, it’s 10,000 feet deep, a shallow sea at equatorial latitudes was there first, 265 million years ago. Got covered up by geological forces.
Leigh Price was a petrochemist/geologist.
Leigh Price Papers
No matter how much lipstick they put on the EV pig it’s still a pig, apologies to actual four footed pigs.
Pigs cannot sing.
Miss Piggy could and did. Sweet miss Piggy…
It really is the only solution, sans future battery tech. Been saying it for a long time. However, to get there is gonna be almost impossible. Everyone here has added another hurdle, and they all are true. I will add that these batteries have to be protected structurally. If they bend they go poof or boom. So a removable one creates a dilemma. Protection by the car or the battery itself?
I can’t even imagine how/what the ‘battery service station’ would look like. It would almost have to be automated. And in the world of our super bureaucracy, at the end of the day, I see it maybe saving half the time to normally charge, but still not be able to compete with filling gas. Of course ev people will say it’s great and the future, but I doubt it.
It really is the only solution, sans future battery tech.
No, it’s not a solution at all, merely an ugly hack that creates a multitude of problems of its own while failing to address the fundamental flaws of BEVs that caused them to be outcompeted from the marketplace a century ago.
So the actual solution is to continue building cars with internal combustion engine in them, and to send the BEV back to the scrap heap of automotive history where it belongs. Then if somehow better technology comes along at some point in the future (whether that is battery improvements or something else altogether), the market can decide whether replacing internal combustion engine-based cars with something else makes sense.
Simple Solution: put the batteries on a standardized and well protected trailer; easy to swap;
easy to upgrade to a hybrid version, just add a diesel generator. And the implied speed limit
comes as a well deserved/desired bonus.
Ceterum censeo EVinem delenda esse [EV delenda est]
Are you kidding me.
Most “drivers” can’t back up a vehicle less yet a trailer.
Amen, BID!
It always makes my teeth ache when I see/hear about Ford’s back-up assist “Pro.” If you cannot back-up a trailer, you are an amateur!
PS: Getting there with the heater core: https://rumble.com/v63ogcp-heater-core-ii.html
Not really sure how ev batteries are emplaced into devices now. But, in the paradigm Eric described every time the battery is removed & replaced, there’s an opportunity for the battery itself or the access port seals to be damaged. Introducing water to the lithium bomb would be bad.
Compare that to the jackasses that smoke / vape whilst pumping gas. The fact those fools haven’t been blown up is a testament to the engineers.
Did yall see this? Comments more interesting than the article.
“‘Crazy cheap’ Teslas hit the market as Hertz fire sale intensifies after error buying 100,000 EVs”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14230423/hertz-purchase-tesla-backfires-price-electric-vehicles-plunge.html
It’s our modern evap systems. when filling the tank, the tank has to vent. the vent fumes now go through a charcoal? canister. pretty simple system with a few relays and a charcoal? cannister. and why you don’t smell gas fumes at gas stations anymore or rarely.
the sad part is they made them mandatory on motorcycles too, which is silly, but they are there.
It’s my understanding that an EV battery loses charging capacity after each charge, and the capacity eventually drops to zero. It may then cost more to replace the battery than to buy a new EV. Do EVs have a counter to track charging cycles? Perhaps ReadyKilowatt can elucidate.
Well, sort of true. The number of charges a battery can take before degrading is know as “cycles” and includes the discharge as well. The number of cycles can be affected by, “DOD” (depth of discharge), rate of discharge (Amps) , temperature and ,of course, battery chemistry. Lead acid batteries degrade quite rapidly with high DOD (above 70%) while Lithium chemistry can do much better with DOD to 85%plus as an example. I get about 400 cycles on my latest EV bike batteries but a EV car might be different.
For sure lithium battery technology has a limited number of charge cycles, as do all battery chemistries. And that number can be highly variable depending level of abuse. Most batteries for transportation use are lithium-iron-phosphate (LiFePO) technology, which is not the best from a KWhr/mass basis but is far safer than the energy density leading LiPO cell. LiFePO cells can usually go through around 1500 discharge/charge cycles, which is a discharge down to ~20% remaining depending on manufacturer’s definition of a full discharge. A battery that’s frequently topped off will last much longer, as well as a battery that’s slow charged. All lithium based batteries require a charge controller circuit that will make sure each cell charges at the same rate and maintains voltage across the battery because a high resistance cell will produce heat instead of taking the charge, one of the big reasons for thermal runaway.
In an ideal situation, a battery can last for years if not abused. I have drone batteries that are over 5 years old (LiFePO) that retain a lot of their capacity, and others (LiPO) that powered older drones that died after 3 years, even if not regularly flown. The batteries that died would show a full charge voltage, but as soon as the aircraft lifted off it would dump power and crash land. Luckily it was only a few feet so no damage done, but there really weren’t any indicators until the current draw went up. This will likely be the failure mode for EV batteries, you’ll push the go pedal and crawl along the on-ramp. So much for ludicrous speed.
Comparing chemistry, lead acid batteries generally degrade when discharged below 50% of rated capacity, at least the deep cycle telecom grade batteries I’m familiar with. They also have much fewer charge-discharge cycles compared to LiFePO. There are also other acid based variants like “calcium” batteries that are often used in small UPS backups and fire alarms. They generally can tolerate slightly greater discharge cycles but won’t really last any longer than lead acid, especially if they’re exposed to high/low temperature. There are also esoteric battery types being dusted off like Sulfur and “flow” batteries that use a tank of pre-charged electrolyte, but these are far too energy sparse for use in transportation.
A lot of my drone maintenance regimen is tracking battery performance, charging and flight cycles. I’d rather get rid of a battery before it becomes a problem. One of my drones is no longer supported by the manufacturer so once those batteries start to go, that’s probably it for the aircraft. Maybe someone will come up with a replacement, but if there’s a problem that causes a crash who’s going to get the blame?
Hey ReadyK,
I usually hear cycle life of LiFePO4 batteries quoted at 4,000 cycles at 80% discharge. The batteries I bought for off-grid living have a 10-year warranty, which would necessitate such a cycle life if cycled daily.
Whatever it is, I have no complaints. These batteries perform exceptionally well for this purpose.
I was working from memory and my research was several years ago. Big house backup batteries are built differently too, with more advanced charging controllers and other secret sauce. They usually overbuild to rated capacity too. And of course some of the brands are stretching the truth because big numbers sell. Either way, 1500 full discharge cycles is far better than most lead acid tech can do.
Unless stored in a climate-controlled environment and kept charged, device batteries lose capacity sitting on a shelf waiting to be used. The expectation of most people with the means to afford devices is that they will roll out of a swap facility with a new or nearly new battery capable of driving the full range specified for the vehicle.
Who gets a new battery and who gets a “gently used” pack?
Hi Roscoe,
That’s like those ‘Blue Rhino’ propane swaps at the supermarket, turn in your nice new propane tank and get one back that’s five years older, plus it’s not even a full 20 pounds. I take my tanks to the local welding supply guy who gives me a few extra pounds since I pay cash and give him a tip.
“Engineers design things to work perfectly, but people often use them perfectly wrong.” – Chat GPT (possibly stolen)
All these schemes look great on the drawing table, but no one really ever anticipates them being used by the 75 IQ kid running the Maverick checkout or that “new arrival” who doesn’t understand English weights and measures at the refilling facility.
You can complain and they’ll probably refund your money, but is it worth all the pain and effort?
Well, that highlights yet another obvious problem with this battery swap cul-de-sac – who will own the batteries?
The “solution” has been in front of us all along…the FREE Market. Whenever I hear some mantras about EVs being part of some “energy independence” or “save the Earth” objective, I just roll my eyes and figure it’s irrational folks being allowed to override our natural rights, including to purchase whatever vehicle(s) please us, for OUR purposes, and maintain them as we see fit.
This is the result of not teaching people how to think.
Look at the image of the phone. 1/2 of the phone’s case is taken up with battery. That’s just to run a relatively low power demand device for 12-16 hours.
Battery tech scales linearly. You want more angry pixies? You just pile them on. Transistors scale logarithmically (roughly speaking), because of smart people coming up with new ways to make them smaller. They are not the same. You really think that swapping 1/2 the volume of a 4 passenger automobile is going to be a 5 minute job?
But back to swapping battery packs. You’d think that would be already a thing, in the form of golf carts. Electric golf carts been around for decades, are usually standardized on each course and could easily be designed to allow for swapping batteries. They’re essentially a closed system. Yet they aren’t easily swappable. Much of that is because traditionally they were big 6V lead acid batteries, not an easy lift for the kid in charge of charging them. But also because it didn’t have any advantages over just driving the carts to a charging area in the caddy shack. The golf course just keeps enough carts charged up to match the day’s needs, and cycles them through as they come back. Any individual cart probably spends more time in the shed than they do on the course, a round of golf taking up a few hours per foursome. If someone did come up with a swappable battery system for golf carts it might save some space at the caddy shack (fewer vehicles needed), but then to charge a lot of batteries at the same time would require upgraded power, probably whole new carts and not really improve the bottom line either.
And of course there will be the occasional out of control fire. NYC is talking about requiring certification for bicycle EV batteries after quite a number of them have caught fire in apartment buildings. Imagine a charging rack of batteries. One goes thermal runaway, pretty soon they’re all burning down. Just slow walk away, son.
Good points KW, Another reason in your example is that the cart usually uses four or more of the deep cycle 6v. monsters weighing close to 80 lbs each. While I have an EV bike with swap-able Lithium packs, they are proprietary to the manufacturer and would be pretty big on a car scale, not so good. I think the short term future is in a hybrid with super caps. and batteries to get some quick charging going without blowing up the grid; and the long term is just another breakthrough in battery technology, we are about do for one. I still remember speculating in the 70’s on the favorable ion exchange in Lithium if we could just get the battery to work at other than 200 degrees C. or something. Well, the rest is history.
These huge lithium fire bomb batteries have a complex heating and cooling system…the coolant lines have to be disconnected when removing the battery….when reinstalled the system must be bled…
Disconnecting and reconnecting a very high voltage battery is very dangerous…few people are qualified……
Al the fasteners holding the 2000 lb fire bomb battery in place have to be removed….. and then replaced when reinstalling……
When the fork lift is used to remove the 2000 lb battery…there is the danger of putting one little tiny dent in the battery case…..if this happens a new $22,000 battery is required…
This sounds like a very dangerous job requiring hours to do safely….and…probably at least $400 in labor costs….who pays for that?
It is far quicker, cheaper and safer to just connect to a charger for an hour or two…..after waiting for an hour in a lineup….
In an ice car the gas tank can be filled in 5 minutes…..the gas tank lasts 50 years or more…….so the replacement is not frequent….
‘… before even getting into how it could be doable to remove and replace a device’s battery in the same amount of time it takes to fully fuel an average gas-powered vehicle.’ — eric
Back in the 1970s, when the streets of New York City were a playground for criminals, it was said that a couple of skilled car thieves could drop a Muncie four-speed transmission out of a Corvette in 220 seconds flat.
With transmission intact, the Corvette’s expected survival time while parked curbside, before being stolen, averaged 15 minutes.
All that’s needed to swap out EeeVee batteries is a little ghetto tech and motivation: the motivation being that — OOPS! — your trade-in battery got sold and the promised credit didn’t appear on your monthly statement.
It sounds bad, but this is just bringing grift down to the street level where ordinary folks can get a cut. Last week, the ‘Biden’ crime regime gave Samsung $4.745 billion to build a chip fab north of Austin. This is stolen money. Little people surreptitiously swipe the crumbs under the table, while the bigs ostentatiously cart off the whole dining room set and china cabinet in broad daylight.
Anything goes and nothing matters.
No, I do not feel that good
When I see the heartbreaks you embrace
If I was a master thief
Perhaps I’d rob them
— Bob Dylan, Positively 4th Street
The streets of New York City have been a playground for criminals for the past 4 years +.