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Thread: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

  1. #1
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    Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    The US apparently now accepts that Iran stopped nuke-weapon development 3-4 years ago, possibly because of US pressure.

    At least that is what our UK-Australasia news media are saying.

    Can it be that neo-cons in the USA actually WANT war with Iran? That many in America who believe in the virgin birth and the Son of God feel they have to fight evil Muslims to allow Christainity to 'win?'

    While America is the backbone of 60 years of world peace, relatively speaking, it would be a shame it its foreign policies were hijacked by Christian nutters whose motivation was superstitition, and not reasonable defence.

  2. #2
    mrblanche
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    This was a National Intelligence Estimate put together by all the intelligence organizations in the U.S. It may reflect their experience with both 9/11 and pre-Iraq estimates, which have been wildly wrong at times, either underestimating or overestimating the situation.

    My guess is that time will tell, but the person I know who best knows Iran says that their industrial experience is very unsuited to developing nuclear weapons.

  3. #3
    Vulture of The Western World Eric's Avatar
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    Quote Originally Posted by robmcg
    The US apparently now accepts that Iran stopped nuke-weapon development 3-4 years ago, possibly because of US pressure.

    At least that is what our UK-Australasia news media are saying.

    Can it be that neo-cons in the USA actually WANT war with Iran? That many in America who believe in the virgin birth and the Son of God feel they have to fight evil Muslims to allow Christainity to 'win?'

    While America is the backbone of 60 years of world peace, relatively speaking, it would be a shame it its foreign policies were hijacked by Christian nutters whose motivation was superstitition, and not reasonable defence.
    What worries me most is what you caught in the Chimp's recent statement that Iran must be prevented from acquiring the knowledge to build nuclear weapons... .

    I assume they already have that (as do I, for that matter - at least the general theory of fusion/fission, etc.). The Chimp no doubt used that word deliberately.

    And that is scary.

  4. #4
    ColleenC2
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    O.K., I will have the conspiracy theory. Just maybe they already have it. And the United States wants them to use them. Because the American people are tired of war. Then if the Iranians use their nuclear weapons, then the Americans will jump on board and say...."Yeah nuke them back to sand", make a parking lot of their country etc., etc." And by saying that the intelligence says that they stop their nuclear aspirations back in 2003, gives a false security to the Iranians and their movements would be less secretive. Oh one could speculate forever regarding the motives of the United States government.

  5. #5
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    Quote Originally Posted by ColleenC2
    one could speculate forever regarding the motives of the United States government.
    Indeed.

    I wonder how much influence Israel has? Illegal settlements on the West Bank, endless conflict there... Israel may be a factor in Iran's 'attitude'.

  6. #6
    mrblanche
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    There were two important points in the assessment that are not getting reported a lot. One is that Iran definitely HAD a nuclear weapons program, which the intelligence community now thinks they halted in 2003. (Wait...I wonder what might have happened in 2003 that convinced them to stop? You don't think...nah, can't be.)

    The second is that while they believe the program was halted in 2003, their research in all the peripherals, such as guided missiles, has continued unabated, and once they perfect enrichment, they can weaponize it in about 1-2 years.

  7. #7
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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    Quote Originally Posted by mrblanche
    My guess is that time will tell, but the person I know who best knows Iran says that their industrial experience is very unsuited to developing nuclear weapons.
    The question is: After they have an accident involving enriched uranium that renders a portion of their landscape unihabitable, will they think "We'd better stop, this stuff is dangerous", or will they think "...almost there -- we'll get it right next time!"

    Chip H.

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    Re: Iran Not So Dangerous After All?

    Quote Originally Posted by mrblanche
    There were two important points in the assessment that are not getting reported a lot. One is that Iran definitely HAD a nuclear weapons program, which the intelligence community now thinks they halted in 2003. (Wait...I wonder what might have happened in 2003 that convinced them to stop? You don't think...nah, can't be.)

    The second is that while they believe the program was halted in 2003, their research in all the peripherals, such as guided missiles, has continued unabated, and once they perfect enrichment, they can weaponize it in about 1-2 years.
    I said about 5 messages up, "probably because of US pressure"...

    my point was the GWB insistence that Iran is evil and must be kept ignorant of nuke tech is in my opinion bound to fail, because it's mutually assured destruction which keeps peace, and terrorism is best curtailed by middle class aspirations and engagement, not good-bad religious style confrontation.

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